ETFDIY2025年7月號

ETFDIY2025年7月號

 

2025年7月起搞搞新意思,除了MPF之外,嘗試展示一下將幾個成熟的TAA (tactical asset allocation) 運用於美股,然後組合出不同的波幅組合,每月作出跟進展示。

 

下表顯示了自2016年1月至2025年6月的組合表現,2%波幅組合是以歷史按月波幅為2%作組合目標,得出歷史年均回報為15.91%,過往(2016-2025年) 最大跌幅為-10.79%,由於過往跌幅未必是組合將來的最大跌幅,於是下表亦列出2%波幅組合的預期最大跌幅為-10%至-20%。

 

下表亦列出其他按月波幅的情況,例如8%按月波幅的歷史年均回報為44.02%,回報/波幅比率為5.5,歷史最大跌幅為-23.91%,預期最大跌幅為-40%至-80%。

 

什麼組合適合什麼人? 基本上是按個人風險承受能力,承受最大跌幅的能力,如果簡單按年歲劃分,20歲適合8%按月波幅組合,40歲可參考6%按月波幅組合,80歲適合2%按月波幅組合。

 

不要幻想有投資策略會只賺不賠,見下表,2022年各組合全年都會蝕8%至14%不等,只是TAA幫助同期可以比起大市蝕少啲。亦不會幻想年均回報就是每年都有同一回報,歷年來回報都有變化,這才有波幅。沒有風險哪來回報?

 

Year Month SPY QQQ 2% 波幅組合 3% 波幅組合 4% 波幅組合 5% 波幅組合 6% 波幅組合 7% 波幅組合 8% 波幅組合
2016 1 -4.98% -6.91% 4.04% 6.41% 8.07% 9.60% 11.03% 12.44% 12.55%
2016 2 -0.08% -1.57% 4.86% 7.50% 9.33% 11.08% 12.81% 14.54% 14.45%
2016 3 6.72% 6.85% 1.01% 1.60% 1.28% 0.90% -0.31% -1.46% -2.09%
2016 4 0.39% -3.19% -0.10% -0.79% -1.37% -2.24% -2.78% -3.32% -3.16%
2016 5 1.70% 4.37% 0.55% 0.85% 0.49% 0.17% -0.46% -1.02% -1.82%
2016 6 0.35% -2.27% 3.43% 5.09% 6.57% 7.79% 9.27% 10.68% 11.34%
2016 7 3.65% 7.15% 1.64% 2.12% 1.78% 1.40% 0.63% -0.06% -0.88%
2016 8 0.12% 1.05% 0.40% 0.68% 0.99% 1.10% 1.25% 1.36% 1.78%
2016 9 0.01% 2.21% 0.05% -0.16% -0.74% -1.34% -2.12% -2.86% -3.39%
2016 10 -1.73% -1.46% 0.21% 0.54% 1.21% 1.83% 2.61% 3.34% 3.98%
2016 11 3.68% 0.44% 0.38% 0.64% 1.11% 1.53% 1.90% 2.23% 2.79%
2016 12 2.03% 1.13% 3.46% 5.16% 6.27% 7.25% 8.13% 8.99% 9.00%
2017 1 1.79% 5.14% 2.39% 3.41% 4.74% 5.88% 7.00% 8.02% 9.20%
2017 2 3.93% 4.38% 2.62% 3.47% 3.87% 4.23% 4.43% 4.64% 4.40%
2017 3 0.13% 2.03% 2.51% 3.94% 4.78% 5.52% 6.09% 6.66% 6.57%
2017 4 0.99% 2.73% 1.90% 2.83% 3.69% 4.44% 4.93% 5.37% 5.95%
2017 5 1.41% 3.90% 2.74% 3.98% 3.72% 3.42% 2.79% 2.30% 0.69%
2017 6 0.64% -2.32% 0.15% 0.08% 0.02% 0.04% 0.34% 0.67% 0.38%
2017 7 2.06% 4.06% 0.76% 0.91% 1.17% 1.33% 1.08% 0.78% 1.41%
2017 8 0.29% 2.07% 1.30% 2.01% 1.90% 1.82% 1.48% 1.21% 0.34%
2017 9 2.01% -0.29% 0.23% 0.31% 1.17% 1.88% 2.74% 3.48% 4.91%
2017 10 2.36% 4.61% 1.69% 2.55% 3.41% 4.16% 4.36% 4.49% 5.32%
2017 11 3.06% 1.97% 2.46% 3.53% 3.98% 4.45% 4.71% 5.00% 4.52%
2017 12 1.21% 0.60% 2.49% 3.71% 4.75% 5.73% 6.77% 7.78% 8.07%
2018 1 5.64% 8.76% 2.15% 2.69% 2.63% 2.57% 1.47% 0.38% 0.25%
2018 2 -3.64% -1.29% -0.25% 0.24% 1.42% 2.54% 3.65% 4.65% 6.01%
2018 3 -2.74% -4.08% -1.08% -1.72% -2.07% -2.38% -2.14% -1.89% -2.03%
2018 4 0.52% 0.51% 1.17% 1.88% 3.20% 4.41% 5.57% 6.60% 8.05%
2018 5 2.43% 5.67% 0.51% 0.63% 0.27% -0.19% -1.05% -1.87% -2.21%
2018 6 0.58% 1.15% 0.34% 0.39% 0.08% -0.20% -0.50% -0.75% -1.33%
2018 7 3.70% 2.80% 1.47% 1.95% 2.43% 2.88% 3.04% 3.17% 3.61%
2018 8 3.19% 5.78% 1.20% 1.51% 1.17% 0.82% -0.19% -1.15% -1.62%
2018 9 0.59% -0.28% -1.07% -1.92% -2.91% -3.82% -4.66% -5.44% -6.12%
2018 10 -6.91% -8.60% -1.69% -1.64% -1.42% -1.20% -1.01% -0.84% -0.52%
2018 11 1.85% -0.26% 1.69% 2.62% 4.28% 5.78% 7.27% 8.61% 10.38%
2018 12 -8.79% -8.65% 1.29% 1.07% 1.93% 2.86% 4.82% 6.69% 7.58%
2019 1 8.01% 9.01% 1.28% 1.78% 2.55% 3.26% 3.97% 4.62% 5.35%
2019 2 3.24% 2.99% 1.51% 2.45% 3.42% 4.27% 4.58% 4.80% 5.72%
2019 3 1.81% 3.92% 3.26% 4.42% 5.90% 7.25% 8.28% 9.19% 10.53%
2019 4 4.09% 5.50% -0.03% -0.57% -2.87% -5.05% -7.81% -10.33% -13.13%
2019 5 -6.38% -8.23% 2.69% 4.63% 7.19% 9.68% 12.38% 14.92% 16.64%
2019 6 6.96% 7.59% 1.91% 2.66% 3.63% 4.51% 5.37% 6.15% 6.92%
2019 7 1.51% 2.33% 2.06% 3.22% 4.96% 6.50% 7.83% 9.00% 10.80%
2019 8 -1.67% -1.90% 1.37% 1.24% 0.61% 0.07% -0.05% -0.07% -1.29%
2019 9 1.95% 0.92% -0.11% -0.15% -0.07% -0.04% -0.10% -0.19% 0.12%
2019 10 2.21% 4.38% 2.17% 3.14% 4.05% 4.90% 5.53% 6.12% 6.63%
2019 11 3.62% 4.07% 1.09% 1.50% 1.87% 2.16% 2.00% 1.80% 2.27%
2019 12 2.90% 3.89% 1.73% 2.11% 2.43% 2.62% 2.54% 2.42% 2.83%
2020 1 -0.04% 3.04% -1.34% -2.19% -4.36% -6.37% -8.80% -11.01% -13.42%
2020 2 -7.92% -6.06% 1.55% 3.09% 4.61% 6.02% 7.41% 8.73% 9.48%
2020 3 -12.46% -7.29% 5.87% 8.29% 11.97% 15.27% 18.28% 20.97% 24.68%
2020 4 12.70% 14.97% 2.86% 4.54% 6.15% 7.65% 9.09% 10.46% 11.23%
2020 5 4.76% 6.60% 2.46% 3.74% 4.48% 5.21% 6.09% 7.00% 6.60%
2020 6 1.78% 6.28% 2.79% 4.40% 6.05% 7.53% 8.45% 9.26% 10.57%
2020 7 5.89% 7.35% 7.40% 10.77% 13.85% 16.34% 18.58% 20.64% 22.59%
2020 8 6.98% 10.94% -0.06% -0.27% -2.36% -4.35% -7.58% -10.58% -13.06%
2020 9 -3.74% -5.78% -4.11% -6.28% -8.05% -9.55% -10.61% -11.59% -12.48%
2020 10 -2.49% -3.04% 3.07% 5.24% 9.06% 12.49% 16.29% 19.75% 23.59%
2020 11 10.88% 11.23% 4.21% 6.34% 7.97% 9.34% 9.18% 8.92% 10.27%
2020 12 3.71% 4.90% 4.71% 7.07% 7.67% 8.11% 8.13% 8.26% 6.90%
2021 1 -1.02% 0.26% 1.27% 2.09% 1.70% 1.38% 0.88% 0.51% -1.05%
2021 2 2.78% -0.13% 3.69% 5.80% 7.60% 9.18% 9.94% 10.60% 11.75%
2021 3 4.54% 1.71% 4.58% 7.00% 8.97% 10.81% 12.09% 13.30% 14.08%
2021 4 5.29% 5.91% 3.36% 4.82% 5.33% 5.78% 5.83% 5.92% 5.32%
2021 5 0.66% -1.20% -0.51% -0.90% -1.51% -2.08% -2.67% -3.21% -3.79%
2021 6 2.25% 6.26% 0.52% 0.57% 0.44% 0.26% -0.11% -0.47% -0.55%
2021 7 2.44% 2.86% 2.61% 3.91% 5.12% 6.20% 7.03% 7.79% 8.53%
2021 8 2.98% 4.22% 1.06% 1.34% 0.82% 0.29% -0.69% -1.58% -2.48%
2021 9 -4.66% -5.68% 0.78% 1.88% 4.82% 7.53% 10.93% 14.03% 17.36%
2021 10 7.02% 7.86% 3.02% 4.11% 4.77% 5.36% 5.21% 5.04% 5.30%
2021 11 -0.80% 2.00% 0.03% 0.37% 0.65% 0.94% 0.84% 0.72% 0.95%
2021 12 4.63% 1.15% 0.00% -0.61% -0.75% -0.86% -0.96% -1.09% -0.65%
2022 1 -5.27% -8.75% -4.14% -6.13% -7.56% -8.81% -9.07% -9.28% -10.02%
2022 2 -2.95% -4.48% 1.15% 1.75% 2.68% 3.49% 4.47% 5.38% 6.22%
2022 3 3.76% 4.67% -1.82% -2.83% -4.44% -5.93% -7.86% -9.67% -10.95%
2022 4 -8.78% -13.60% -3.52% -5.73% -6.38% -6.94% -6.64% -6.42% -5.50%
2022 5 0.23% -1.59% -0.07% -0.14% -0.30% -0.51% -0.94% -1.38% -1.34%
2022 6 -8.25% -8.91% 0.40% 0.77% 2.22% 3.64% 5.27% 6.74% 8.50%
2022 7 9.21% 12.55% 0.18% 0.20% -0.09% -0.36% -0.54% -0.68% -1.24%
2022 8 -4.08% -5.13% -2.49% -3.81% -4.91% -5.79% -6.83% -7.84% -8.23%
2022 9 -9.24% -10.54% -0.89% -1.37% -1.26% -1.12% -1.10% -1.15% -0.38%
2022 10 8.13% 4.00% 2.21% 3.28% 3.94% 4.30% 3.94% 3.53% 4.16%
2022 11 5.56% 5.54% -0.60% -1.24% -1.79% -2.29% -2.50% -2.68% -3.05%
2022 12 -5.76% -9.01% 0.85% 1.36% 3.64% 5.89% 8.66% 11.18% 13.94%
2023 1 6.29% 10.64% 3.52% 5.18% 5.21% 4.97% 3.97% 3.06% 1.96%
2023 2 -2.51% -0.36% 2.19% 3.63% 6.76% 9.77% 12.90% 15.73% 19.08%
2023 3 3.71% 9.49% 1.88% 2.42% 2.12% 1.82% 2.04% 2.38% 0.97%
2023 4 1.60% 0.51% -0.03% -0.47% -1.19% -1.81% -2.46% -3.04% -3.78%
2023 5 0.46% 7.88% 1.92% 3.56% 5.28% 6.75% 7.16% 7.42% 9.20%
2023 6 6.48% 6.30% 3.18% 3.95% 4.74% 5.60% 5.70% 5.76% 6.42%
2023 7 3.27% 3.86% 1.51% 1.60% 1.36% 1.12% 0.56% 0.02% -0.25%
2023 8 -1.63% -1.48% -1.55% -2.38% -3.33% -4.22% -4.93% -5.58% -6.29%
2023 9 -4.74% -5.08% -3.48% -4.71% -5.74% -6.65% -7.10% -7.50% -8.15%
2023 10 -2.17% -2.07% 4.57% 7.08% 10.46% 13.62% 17.15% 20.46% 22.94%
2023 11 9.13% 10.82% 4.12% 6.44% 8.23% 9.75% 10.23% 10.61% 11.72%
2023 12 4.57% 5.59% 4.14% 4.75% 4.33% 3.96% 3.26% 2.66% 1.42%
2024 1 1.59% 1.82% -0.16% -0.72% -0.68% -0.71% -0.84% -1.05% -0.18%
2024 2 5.22% 5.28% 3.09% 4.45% 5.15% 5.86% 5.92% 5.99% 5.86%
2024 3 3.27% 1.27% 0.80% 0.45% -1.10% -2.53% -4.55% -6.41% -8.28%
2024 4 -4.03% -4.37% -1.62% -1.90% -1.47% -1.03% -0.26% 0.45% 1.22%
2024 5 5.06% 6.15% 3.99% 5.39% 7.16% 8.81% 10.08% 11.22% 12.78%
2024 6 3.53% 6.47% 1.49% 1.47% 1.10% 0.80% 0.18% -0.41% -0.88%
2024 7 1.21% -1.68% -0.21% -1.46% -3.36% -4.99% -6.28% -7.39% -9.51%
2024 8 2.34% 1.10% 1.44% 1.42% 1.60% 1.79% 2.01% 2.20% 2.50%
2024 9 2.10% 2.62% 1.30% 1.24% 0.68% 0.15% -0.46% -1.00% -1.83%
2024 10 -0.89% -0.86% 1.18% 2.98% 5.02% 6.88% 8.66% 10.32% 11.74%
2024 11 5.96% 5.35% 2.97% 3.64% 3.75% 3.85% 3.55% 3.29% 2.93%
2024 12 -2.41% 0.45% -2.57% -3.95% -4.89% -5.64% -5.58% -5.47% -6.06%
2025 1 2.69% 2.16% 1.08% 1.19% 1.02% 0.89% 0.57% 0.27% -0.06%
2025 2 -1.27% -2.70% 0.67% 0.58% 1.42% 2.27% 3.53% 4.68% 5.88%
2025 3 -5.86% -7.72% 2.32% 3.38% 6.01% 8.51% 12.13% 15.51% 17.98%
2025 4 -0.87% 1.40% 3.30% 4.76% 7.14% 9.37% 11.99% 14.43% 16.46%
2025 5 6.28% 9.18% 0.80% 1.82% 2.54% 3.10% 3.05% 2.95% 3.44%
2025 6 5.14% 6.38% 2.15% 3.15% 3.55% 3.87% 3.44% 3.02% 3.05%
SPY QQQ 2% 波幅組合 3% 波幅組合 4% 波幅組合 5% 波幅組合 6% 波幅組合 7% 波幅組合 8% 波幅組合
2016-2025 年均回報 14.59% 19.39% 15.88% 22.59% 28.48% 33.73% 37.34% 40.69% 43.99%
2016-2025 按月波幅 4.46% 5.42% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00%
2016-2025 回報/波幅 3.27  3.58 7.94  7.54 7.12 6.74  6.22  5.81  5.50
2016-2025 過往最大跌幅 -23.93% -32.58% -10.79% -16.82% -19.43% -21.60% -22.66% -23.86% -23.91%
預期最大跌幅 -22%至-44% -27%至-54% -10%至-20% -15%至-30% -20%至-40% -25%至-50% -30%至-60% -35%至-70% -40%至-80%
 各年回報 SPY QQQ 2% 波幅組合 3% 波幅組合 4% 波幅組合 5% 波幅組合 6% 波幅組合 7% 波幅組合 8% 波幅組合
2016 11.86% 7.80% 20% 30% 35% 39% 42% 45% 45%
2017 19.88% 28.88% 21% 31% 37% 43% 47% 50% 52%
2018 -3.58% 1.51% 6% 8% 11% 14% 16% 18% 22%
2019 28.25% 34.47% 19% 26% 34% 40% 45% 48% 53%
2020 20.05% 43.14% 29% 45% 57% 68% 75% 81% 87%
2021 26.11% 25.22% 20% 30% 38% 45% 48% 52% 55%
2022 -17.44% -35.25% -9% -14% -14% -14% -13% -12% -8%
2023 24.46% 46.10% 22% 31% 38% 45% 48% 52% 55%
2024 22.95% 23.60% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 10%
2025* 6.11% 8.70% 11% 15% 22% 28% 35% 41% 47%

2025年數字為1至6月 (2025-8-1 注: 上表數字已有更改)

 

2025年數字為1至6月

 

(2025-8-1 注: 上表數字已有更改)

 

 

 

 

 

組合內投資/持股

 

由於組合是使用TAA,所以起碼每月會更新一次投資內容或者持股,例如以下列出2025年7月1日的各組合持股內容及份額比例。

不過由於組合是由多個TAA策略優化而成,而當中不同策略有不同檢討周期,有些策略一星期檢討一次,並且進行持股調整,所以要每個星期初開市就進行持股調整;有些策略則一個月檢討一次,每月第一日交易日調整持股內容及份額比例。

 

TAA下的投資物與份額比例每月不同, 不像是SAA(strategic asset allocation)般長期定死rebalance,上圖投資物與份額比例只是2025年7月1日情況。

 

策略的投資/持股內容以大路指數ETF為主,有股票ETF有債券ETF,亦會有Crypto ETF。回報不是靠單一ETF及特別個股,而是靠TAA策略的適時Asset Allocation。

 

組合內的持股亦有槓桿ETF,以提升回報及不用運用margin,免受斬倉風險。

 

留意上述的回報是最佳條件,個人投資者未必達到,因為有買賣差價,落盤時機及交易市價各人都不同,券商收費,交易稅費,資金成本亦因人而異。有些美股/ETF派息會因投資者的稅務身份而有預扣股息稅,各人的增值稅及入息稅亦因稅務身份各有分別。保守預期可以是將上表回報打個9折,作為預期稅前回報。

 

由於只是簡單展示,現只展示每月月初的組合持股,月中每星期的調整不會展示。日後有機會又有人有興趣才完全逐次展示。

 

因為其中一個策略的投資物由2016年起才開始,所以上述組合的整體回測沒有2016年之前更早期的完整數據,但個別策略回測歷史可以早至1986年。

 

上述組合不適用於強積金環境,因為強積金內的成份基金投資選擇太少,無crypto無槓桿無商品,成份基金報價比起ETF慢,有難以星期為單位作TAA 策略回測。MPF策略請參考mpfier.com。

 

上述各組合由多個TAA策略優化而成,這些TAA策略比較複雜,不會公開步驟及操作內容,只會展示每月或每星期的持股內容及份額比例。遲些可能加入更加多TAA策略,現時只用比較大路安全的策略,相信絕大部份人都夠用。與同時段的美股大市相比(SPY, QQQ),見上表,相同回報下,組合有更低波幅(減半); 或者相同波幅下,組合有更高回報(接近double) 。

 

各波幅組合的回報/波幅比率有5.5至7.5不等,而且不是依靠個別公司股票,有近10年歷史數據,相信網上很難揾到同等優質的策略組合,適合不同年歲及風險承受能力的人士。內裏各個TAA策略是集筆者多年研究之大成,內容scalable,由個人新丁至機構大戶都適用。展示的ETF可以自行用其他同類ETF代替,尤其如有更低基金收費的,展示的ETF只是比較有長期歷史,大公司發行,多人用。

 

進階的人士可用期權操作,資金及風險隨意。

 

另外,有些移英人士有機會不能直接買賣美國ETF,可以使用相對應的英歐UCITS 基金甚至傳統mutual fund。

 

US ETF Closest UCITS Equivalent ISIN / Ticker Provider
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF IE00B5BMR087 / CSP1 iShares
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) iShares USD Treasury Bond 3-7yr UCITS ETF IE00B1XW3S64 / IBTM iShares
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF IE0032077012 / EQQQ Invesco
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF IE00B3RBWM25 / VWRL Vanguard (Not identical; broad global exposure)
Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) WisdomTree Enhanced Commodity UCITS ETF IE00BYMLZY31 / WCOB WisdomTree
PIMCO 25+ Yr Zero Coupon US Trs ETF (ZROZ) No direct Zero Coupon UCITS equivalent, iShares $ Treasury Bond 20+yr UCITS ETF (IDTG) IE00BK5MT033 / IDTG iShares
ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) Leverage Shares 3x Nasdaq-100 ETP XS2399364152 / 3QQQ Leverage Shares (ETP, not ETF)
Direxion Daily S&P500 Bull 3X ETF (SPXL) Leverage Shares 3x S&P 500 ETP IE00BKTW0Z31 / 3USP Leverage Shares (ETP)
VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel HiYld Bd ETF (ANGL) VanEck Global Fallen Angel High Yield Bond UCITS ETF (GFA) IE00BF540Z61 / GFA VanEck

 

 

不過記住投資係個人事情,上述只是展示資訊,不構成投資建議賺蝕自己負責,見免責聲明

 

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4 comments
  1. 8%波幅在2022全部跌市中反而可以不是較差表現
    低波幅(3%,4%)卻是比較更差少少,當中原因可能因為債劵成份(20%-30%)在2022表現極差

    1. 對的, 低波幅組合主要依靠債券類別資產去降低波幅, COVID美股美債一齊大跌是近年一段stress test的時機.

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